Pope Boniface VIII called the first Jubilee in 1300. The frequency of Holy Years has changed over time. At first, they were celebrated every 100 years before Pope Clement VI reduced the gap to every 50 years in 1343 and Pope Paul II made it every 25 years in 1470. There have also been “extraordinary” Holy Years, such as in 1933 when Pope Pius XI chose to commemorate the 1900th anniversary of the Redemption and in 2015 when Pope Francis proclaimed the Year of Mercy as an extraordinary jubilee. The way in which Jubilee Years are marked has also changed through the centuries. The Holy Year originally consisted of a pilgrimage to the Roman Basilicas of St. Peter and St. Paul with other symbols added later, such as the Holy Door. Those who participate in the Holy Year are granted a plenary indulgence.
The Jubilee will also be celebrated in the following churches in the Dioceses of Florence and Fiesole, where pilgrims will be able to receive the gift of indulgence: Cathedral of Santa Maria del Fiore, Santissima Annunziata, Santa Verdiana (Castelfiorentino), Santa Maria (Impruneta), Santa Maria (Montesenario), Maria Santissima delle Grazie (San Giovanni Valdarno), Madonna delle Grazie al Sasso (Santa Brigida), Santa Maria Assunta in Cielo (Vallombrosa), San Niccolò (Radda in Chianti) and Santa Maria della Neve e San Domenico (Pratovecchio).
How is the 2025 Jubilee in Rome expected to have an impact on tourism in Florence?
We asked Gianfranco Lorenzo, head of research at Centro Studi Turistici di Firenze, a non-profit association made up of public and private operators, which has been carrying out study, research training and consultancy activities in the tourism industry since 1975.
It’s not an easy question to answer because we don’t currently have the data to formulate a clear forecast and the Jubilee is part of an Italian and international context that is complex in itself. Tourism is generally expected to slow down in 2025. Domestic tourism within Italy showed a negative trend in 2024, which was also confirmed over the Christmas holidays, meaning that Italians often choose overseas destinations that are cheaper than domestic destinations, especially places connected by low-cost flights. For example, Spain experienced a significant uptick in Italian tourists in 2024.
Faced with a slowdown in tourism from Italy and abroad, we can say that religious tourism, like the flow generated by the Jubilee, has always been deeply motivational in the past, meaning that it is capable of moving many people. Of course, Rome will be the focus of it all, with 30-35 million people estimated to arrive in the Eternal City. My estimate is slightly lower, at 28-30 million. Not all these visits will result in overnight stays. There may very well be people who see “Rome in a day”.
Starting from these data, it is estimated that at least 10 per cent of “religious tourists” will make the most of the opportunity to visit Italy’s main art cities. The opposite may also occur: tourists who have scheduled a stay in Florence will be able to plan a day trip to Rome.
Given all of this, the estimated effect that the Jubilee will have on Florence will be about +6-7% of overnight stays in 2025. Considering that, in 2024, Florence had about 10 million overnight stays, in 2025 we can calculate 600-700,000 more overnight stays, regardless of the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand expected for next year.
To conclude, let me repeat what I said to begin: the variables associated with international situations, such as the new U.S. presidency, the extension of conflicts, the slowdown of the global economy, the economic struggles of some European countries and high prices in Italy make for a complicated picture. Even forecasts on the number of pilgrims who will travel for the Jubilee could change quickly, although the hope is to receive confirmation about the best possible conditions for tourist flows.
