According to an analysis by ReportAziende.it, based on updated 2024 data from Istat and Eurostat, exports from Tuscany to the United States are worth over three billion euro, with critical exposure in the provinces of Florence, Arezzo and Siena. The most impacted industries include DOC and IGT wine production, certified food products (PDO), high-end fashion and leather goods, and gold jewellery manufacturing.
Wine is the flagship of Tuscan exports to the United States with more than one-fifth of the region’s wine exports being absorbed by the American market. The Chianti, Brunello and Bolgheri denominations are especially vulnerable to a drop in demand, which could fall by 20 to 40 per cent according to simulations. Likewise, Florence’s fashion and artisanal leather goods, along with Arezzo’s jewellery industry, risk a collapse in premium orders, which is the segment most sensitive to price increases due to tariffs. The quality agri-food sector, including extra-virgin olive oil, cheeses and cured meats, may also suffer both direct and indirect ones from unsold domestic stockpiles.
“Tuscany faces a double penalty: on one hand, its high value-added exports and, on the other hand, the brand positioning built up over years on international markets. Tuscan excellence, from wine to fashion, is rooted in strong, stable relationships that risk being undermined by tariff mechanisms outside of companies’ control,” states the economic and financial analysis team at ReportAziende.it.
At the national level, Italy exports over 63 billion euro to the U.S. Of this, more than 30 billion euro are in sectors now subject to tariffs, with a direct loss estimated at up to 9 billion euro and a total impact (including indirect effects) between 18 and 22 billion euro over the 2025–26 period.
The impact of U.S. tariffs on jobs in Tuscany
15,000 to 18,000 jobs are estimated to be at risk in Tuscany, with a concentration among exporting SMEs and artisanal and family-run businesses in wine, leather goods, design manufacturing and certified agri-food sectors. At the national level, the total estimated impact ranges from 115,000 to 145,000 jobs, with 75 per cent of the effects concentrated in northern and central Italy.
Effects on domestic prices
Beyond the decline in exports, the analysis highlights a secondary effect on domestic prices due to reduced foreign demand. In Tuscany, this could result in an average consumer price increase of up to 10 per cent in affected sectors, starting as early as the first quarter of 2026, with visible effects on mid-to-high-end products.
The study is based on official data from Istat, Comext and Eurostat updated for the 2023–24 period.
